Risk-Free Promo Model (Refund losers at full price)

Repeats to breakeven (after 1 risk-free rip)

Why repeats matter

This model simulates a risk-free promo on $25 packs. With our odds, a risk-free rip is expected to be margin-negative (losers refund to $0, winners cost us more than $25). We make the cohort positive by converting users to repeat rips in normal buyback mode.

• Repeat purchases under risk-free don’t help: each additional risk-free rip carries the same negative expectation.
• Repeat purchases in normal mode (90% buyback) do help: most pulls are below $25, and when those losers buy back at 90% of FMV, many rips create a small positive spread. Across attempts, that positive spread compounds and offsets the initial promo loss.
• As marketers, our job is to drive repeat rips in normal mode (not more risk-free), ideally with a strong loser buyback flow.

Use the card above to see how many normal-mode repeats are needed to breakeven after one risk-free rip, given the current price and odds.

Where “Repeats to breakeven” comes from

With today’s bands and the normal-mode assumption (losers sell back at 90% of FMV, 100% take-rate) at P = $25:

• Losers (V < $25): ~75.8%, avg loser value ≈ $21.08
  Normal-mode margin on a loser ≈ P − 0.9·V = 25 − 0.9×21.08 ≈ +$6.03
  Weighted contribution ≈ 0.758 × 6.03 ≈ +$4.57
• Winners (V ≥ $25): ~24.2%, avg winner value ≈ $43.08
  Margin ≈ P − V = 25 − 43.08 ≈ −$18.08
  Weighted contribution ≈ 0.242 × (−18.08) ≈ −$4.37

Normal-mode expected margin per rip ≈ +$0.21.
Risk-free expected margin per rip ≈ −$4.37 (losers refund to $0; winners cost us).

Repeats to breakeven is computed as:
ceil(|risk-free margin| / normal-mode margin) ≈ ceil(4.37 / 0.21) ≈ 22

Notes: This figure is per initial risk-free rip. For a cohort that did N risk-free rips, multiply the repeats by N. The number updates as you change price, odds, or assumptions.